NAFTA’s effect on U.S. employment has probably been something between a modest gain to a loss of several hundred thousand U.S. jobs. The effect of trade with China has probably been greater, resulting in a loss of perhaps a million or more jobs. But both of these effects are likely to be much smaller than the result of the U.S.’s completely unregulated trade with a different country, one that has no labor protections and whose workers work very long hours for very low wages.

I am talking about the “Nation of AI”. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, in the U.S. there are 3.85 million drivers (of trucks, buses, taxis, etc..), 3.5 million cashiers, 2.6 million customer service representatives, and many other people working in jobs that could be automated in the near future. It is sometimes said that “routine” jobs are the ones most at risk, but perhaps a better term for this is *quantifiable *jobs. If your job consists of performing well-defined tasks that have a clear criteria of success (like “getting from point A to point B”) then it is at risk of first being “Uberized” (or “M-Turk’ed”) and then automated. After all, optimizing well defined objectives is what computers do best.

Of course, like other trade deals and technological advances in the past, it could well be that the the eventual net effect of artificial intelligence on human employment is zero or even positive. But it will undoubtedly involve shifting of jobs, and, especially if it happens on a short time scale, many people whose jobs are eliminated would be unable to acquire the skills for obtaining the jobs that are created.

Understanding how to deal with this (arguably more realistic) type of “AI risk” is a grand challenge on the interface of Economics and Computer Science, as well as many other areas. Like other questions of incentives, privacy, fairness, and others, I believe theoretical computer science can and should play some role in addressing this challenge.

]]>

In particular in 2017-2018, Harvard’s center for mathematical sciences and applications will be hosting a special year on combinatorics and complexity, organized by Noga Alon, me, Jacob Fox, Madhu Sudan, Salil Vadhan, and Leslie Valiant. I am quite excited about the workshops and events we have planned, so it should be a great time to be in the area.

The two sister sum-of-squares seminars at Cambridge and Princeton have been maintaining a fairly extensive set of online lecture notes (with links to videos of Cambridge lectures added as we go along). While these notes are still a work in progress, I am already quite happy with how they turned out (but would be grateful for any feedback to help make them more accessible).

As I mentioned before, if you want to see the live version, David Steurer and I are going to teach a Sum of Squares Winter Course in UC San Diego in **January 4-7, 2017**. Should be fun!!

Finally, please send in your suggestions for papers to invite for Theory Fest presentations by **December 12, 2016.** I’ve been having some issues with the dedicated email I setup for this, so if you sent in a suggestion and didn’t get a response, please send me a copy at my personal email as well.

]]>

A priori predicting the result of the election seems like an unglamorous and straighforward exercise: you ask people for their opinions whether they prefer candidate or candidate , and you predict that the result will be the majority opinion, with probability that is about . This means that if two candidates are at least 2 percent apart, then you should get extremely high confidence if you ask some constant factor times 2,500 people.

Yet somehow, different analysts looking at the polls come up with very different numbers for the probability that Trump will win. As of today 538 says it is 34.2%, NY-times’ Upshot says it is 14%, David Rotchschild’s predictwise says it is 16%, and Sam Wang’s PEC says it is 2%.

There are several reasons for this discrepancy, including the fact that the U.S. election is not won based on popular vote (though they almost always agree), that we need to estimate the fraction among actual voters as opposed to the general population, that polls could have systematic errors, and of course there is genuine uncertainty in the sense that some people might change their minds.

But at least one of the reasons seems to come up from a problem that TCS folks are familiar with, and arises in the context of rounding algorithms for convex optimization, which is to understand *higher level correlations*. For example, essentially all these predictors think that there are a few states such Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Carolina that have reasonable chance of going either way, but that Trump cannot afford to lose even one of them. Clearly these are not perfectly independent nor perfectly correlated events, but understanding the correlations between them seems hard, and appears to account for much of the huge discrepancy between the topline predictions.

Even if you do understand the correlations, using them to come up with predictions can be a computationally hard task. The typical way these people do it is to come up with an **efficiently samplable distribution** that matches the given marginals and correlations, and then run many simulations on this distribution to predict the outcome.

But coming up with efficiently sampleable distributions that match even simple pairwise or three-wise correlations is a **computationally hard** task. (For constrained pairwise moments this is related to MAX-CUT while for unconstrained higher moments this is related to SAT, it is possible to do this for unconstrained pairwise moments using the quadratic sampling lemma, also known as Gaussian copula, which is related to the hyperplane rounding technique of Geomans and Williamson.) For an empirical demonstration, see this blog post of David Rothschild for how it is problematic to find a distribution that matches both the statewise and topline marginals of prediction markets (despite a fact that such a distribution should exist under the efficient market hypothesis). The fact that the matching moments problem is hard in general means that people use different heuristics to achieve this, and I don’t know if they have a good understanding of how the choice of heuristic affects the quality of prediction.

In our sum of squares lecture notes we discuss (with a javascript-powered figure!) this issue with respect to the **clique problem**. Given a graph with a hidden clique , if we are computationally bounded and want to make predictions on events such as we cannot find an efficiently sampleable distribution over sets that would not make non-sensical predictions such as or for some non neighbors . The sos algorithm (and other convex optimization frameworks) can be thought of as a way to come up with predictions without a matching efficiently sampleable distribution, by generalizing to the notion of pseudo-distribution.

]]>

One component of Theory Fest would be a series of presentations to **highlight some of the best theoretical work in the past two years from other conferences or journals**. (A non-exhaustive list of sample venues is ICALP,SODA, CRYPTO, LICS, PODS, PODC, QIP, SPAA, KDD, CCC, SIGMETRICS, Transaction on IT, WWW, ICML/NIPS , Science/Nature, etc..) Invited papers from these venues will be presented in short (20-30 minute) plenary presentations at Theory Fest.

We (the sub-committee in charge of this component) seek suggestions of theoretical papers that have made breakthrough advances, opened up new questions or areas, made unexpected connections, or had significant impact on practice or other sciences. Anyone is welcome to contact us, but we especially invite members of PCs or editorial boards in various venues to send us suggestions.

If you can think of any recent result that satisfies these criteria, or have any related questions, please email **stoc17presentations@boazbarak.org** (please CC my personal email as well). Suggestions for presentations should include the following information:

- Name of the paper and authors.
- Publication venue (conference / journal), with publication date no earlier than January 1 2015.
- Short (1-3 paragraph) explanation of the paper and its importance.
- (Optional) Names of 1-3 knowledgeable experts on the area of this paper.

To ensure maximum consideration, please send us all these suggestions by **December 12, 2016**. Self-nominations are discouraged.

Thank you,

Theory Fest 2017 short plenaries committee:

Dorit Aharonov (Hebrew University)

Boaz Barak (Harvard University, committee chair)

Paul Beame (University of Washington)

Kamalika Chaudhuri (UC San Diego)

Ronald Fagin (IBM Research – Almaden)

Piotr Indyk (MIT)

Friedhelm Meyer auf der Heide (University of Paderborn)

Eva Tardos (Cornell)

Suresh Venkatasubramanian (University of Utah)

]]>

In this spirit, the theory group at Stanford and our theory colleagues all around the Silicon Valley are establishing a forum for continuous collaboration (through meetings and electronic means) between theoreticians in industry and academia in the SF Bay Area. We name it TOCA-SV. TOCA stands for Theory of Computing Associated and also, quite appropriately, means touches in Spanish. Like others, calling for a revolution: I hope that TOCA groups will surface all over.

Our first meeting will take place at Stanford on November 4th. Please join us if you are around and please don’t forget to register.

Students who want to present in this event (in a lightning-talk session) are asked to email us at tocasvalley@gmail.com. Please specify your name, affiliation, adviser (if you have one), year and email address. We will try to accommodate as many as possible (but future opportunities are planed).

Finally, to stay in touch for future information, please join our Google group.

Occupy TOC, power to the people, onwards and upwards or whatever seems appropriate here

]]>

But, if you can’t make it in person, the talks will be streamed live on the workshop’s website. These talks can be a great resource for anyone, but I especially encourage beginning graduate students to watch them. Watching the kind of high level talks that are in this workshop (as well as other places, including the theoretically speaking and open lectures series of the Simons Institute of Computing) can be extremely useful for students trying to figure out what area of research to focus on.

]]>

But, if you want the short, in-person, better weather version, you might want to sign up for the winter Course David Steurer and I will teach on this topic January 4-7 2017 in UC San Diego.

We hope to touch on how the sos algorithm interacts with questions in computational complexity, approximation algorithms, machine learning, quantum information theory, extremal combinatorics, and more.

]]>

If you are interested in attending the course, or even following it remotely, please see the course web page, and also sign up for its Piazza page (people without a Harvard email can use this form). David and I will be trying to write fairly complete lecture notes, which we will post on the website, and I might also post some summaries on this blog.

Here is the introduction for this course:

The terms “Algebra” and “Algorithm” both originate from the same person. Muhammad ibn Musa al Khwarizmi was a 9th century Persian mathematician, astronomer and geographer. The Latin translation of his books introduced the Hindu-Arabic decimal system to the western world. His book “The Compendious Book on Calculation by Completion and Balancing” also presented the first general solution for quadratic equations via the technique of “completing the square”. More than that, this book introduced the notion of solving *general* as opposed to specific equations by a sequence of manipulations such as subtracting or adding equal amounts. Al Khwarizmi called the latter operation *al-jabr *(“restoration” or “completion”), and this term gave rise to the word *Algebra*. The word *Algorithm* is derived from the Latin form of Al Khwarizmi’s name. (See *The equation that couldn’t be solved* by Mario Livio for much of this history.)

Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi (from a 1983 Soviet Union stamp commemorating his 1200 birthday).

However, the solution of equations of degree *larger than two* took much longer time. Over the years, a great many ingenious people devoted significant effort to solving special cases of such equations. In the 14th century, the Italian mathematician Maestro Dardi of Pisa gave a classification of 198 types of cubic (i.e., degree ) and quartic (i.e., degree ) equations, but could not find a general solution for all such examples. Indeed, in the 16th century, Italian mathematicians would often hold “Mathematical Duels” in which opposing mathematicians would present to each other equations to solve. These public competitions attracted many spectators, were the subject of bets, and winning such duels was often a condition for obtaining appointments or tenure at universities. It is in the context of these competitions, and through a story of intrigue, controversy and broken vows, that the general formula for cubic and quartic equations was finally discovered, and later published in the 1545 book of Cardano.

The solution for *quintic* formulas took another 250 years. Many great mathematicians including Descartes, Leibnitz, Lagrange, Euler, and Gauss worked on the problem of solving equations of degree five and higher, finding solutions for spcial cases but without

discovering a general formula. It took until the turn of the 19thcentury and the works of Ruffini, Galois and Abel to discover that in fact such a general formula for solving degree 5 or higher equations via combinations of the basic arithmetic formulas and taking roots does *not* exist. More than that, these works gave rise to a *precise characterization* of which equations are solvable and thus led to the birth of *group theory*.

Today, solving an equation such as (which amounts to constructing a 17-gon using a compass and straightedge- one of Gauss’s achievements that he was most proud of) can be done in a few lines of routine calculations. Indeed, this is a story that repeats itself often in science: we move from special cases to a general theory, and in the process transform what once required creative genius into mere calculations. Thus often the sign of scientific success is when we eliminate the need for creativity and make boring what was once exciting.

Let us fast-forward to present days, where the *design of algorithms* is another exciting field that requires a significant amount of creativity. The Algorithms textbook of Cormen et al has 35 chapters, 156 sections, and 1312 pages, dwarfing even Dardi’s tome on the 198 types of cubic and quartic equations. The crux seems to be the nature of *efficient *computation. While there are some exceptions, typically when we ask whether a problem can be solved *at all* the answer is much simpler, and does not seem to require such a plethora of techniques as is the case when we ask whether the problem can be solved *efficiently*. Is this state of affairs inherent, or is it just a matter of time until algorithm design will become as boring as solving a single polynomial equation?

We will *not* answer this question in this course. However, it does motivate some of the questions we ask, and the investigations we pursue. In particular, this motivates the study of *general algorithmic frameworks* as opposed to tailor-made algorithms for particular problems. There is also a practical motivation for this as well: real world problems often have their own kinks and features, and will rarely match up exactly to one of the problems in the textbook. A general algorithmic framework can be applied to a wider range of problems, even if they have not been studied before.

There are several such general frameworks, but we will focus on one example that arises from convex programming: the *Sum of Squares (SOS) Semidefinite Programming Hierarchy*. It has the advantage that on the one hand it is general enough to capture many algorithmic

techniques, and on the other hand it is specific enough that (if we are careful) we can avoid the “curse of completeness”. That is, we can actually prove impossibility results or lower bounds for this framework without inadvertently resolving questions such as vs . The hope is that we can understand this framework enough to be able to *classify *which problems it can and can’t solve. Moreover, as we will see, through such study we end up investigating issues that are of independent interest, including mathematical questions on geometry, analysis, and probability, as well as questions about modeling *beliefs* and *knowledge* of computationally bounded observers.

Let us now take a step back from the pompous rhetoric and slowly start getting around to the mathematical contents of this course. It will be mostly be focused on the *Sum of Squares (SOS) semidefinite programming hierarchy*. In a sign that perhaps we did not advance so much from the middle ages, the SOS algorithm is also a method for solving polynomial

equations, albeit systems of *several* equations in *several* variables. However, it turns out that this is a fairly general formalism. Not onlyis solving such equations, even in degree two, NP-hard, but in fact one can often reduce directly to this task from problems of interest in a fairly straightforward manner.For example, given a 3SAT formula of a form such as , we can easily translate the question of whether it has a satisfying assignment (where is the number of variables) into the question of whether the equations can be solved where is the number of claues and is the degree polynomial obtained by summing for every clause the polynomial such that equals if satisfies clause and otherwise.

We will be interested in solving such equations over the *real numbers*, and typically in settings where **(a)** the polynomials in questions are low degree, and **(b)** obtaining an approximate solution is essentially as good as obtaining an exact solution, which helps avoid at least some issues of precision and numerical accuracy. Nevertheless, this is still a very challenging setting. In particular, whenever there is more than one equation, or the degree is higher than two, the task of solving polynomial equations becomes *non convex*, and generally speaking, there can be exponentially many local minima for the “energy function” which is obtained by summing up the square violations of the equations. This is problematic since many of the tools we use to solve such equations involve some form of local search, maintaining at each iteration a current solution and looking for directions of improvements. Such methods can and will get “stuck” at such local minima.

When faced with a non-convex problem, one approach that is used in both practice and theory is to *enlarge the search space*. Geometrically, we hope that by adding additional dimensions, one may find new ways to escape local minima. Algebraically, this often amounts to adding additional variables, with a standard example being the *linearization* technique where we reduce, say, quadratic equations in variables into a linear equations in variables by letting correspond to . If the original system was sufficiently overdetermined, one could hope that we can still solve for .

The *SOS algorithm* is a systematic way of enlarging the search space, by adding variables in just such a manner. In the example above it adds in the additional constraint that if the matrix would be *positive semidefinite*. That is, that it satisfies for every column vector . (Note that if was in fact of the form then would equal .) More generally, the SOS algorithm is parameterized by a number , known as its *degree*, and for every set of polynomial equations on variables, yields a *semidefinite program *on variables that becomes a tighter and tighter approximation of the original equations as grows. As the problem is NP complete, we don’t expect this algorithm to solve polynomial equations efficiently (i.e., with small degree ) in the most general case, but understanding in which cases it does so is the focus of much research efforts and the topic of this course.

The SOS algorithm has its roots in questions raised in the late century by Minkowski and Hilbert of whether any non-negative polynomial can be represented as a sum of squares of other polynomials. Hilbert realized that, except for some special cases (most notably univariate polynomials and quadratic polynomials), the answer is negative and that there are examples—which he showed to exist by non constructive means—of non-negative polynomial that cannot be represented in this way. It was only in the 1960’s that Motzkin gave a concrete example of such a polynomial, namely

By the arithmetic-mean geometric-mean inequality, and hence this polynomial is always non-negative. However, it is not hard, though a bit tedious, to show that it cannot be expressed as a sum of squares.

In his famous 1900 address, Hilbert asked as his 17th problem whether any polynomial can be represented as a sum of squares of *rational *functions. (For example, Motzkin’s polynomial above can be shown to be the sum of squares of four rational functions of denominator and numerator degree at most ). This was answered positively by Artin in 1927. His approach can be summarized as follows: given a hypothetical polynomial that cannot be represented in this form, to use the fact that the rational functions are a field to extend the reals into a “pseudo-real” field on which there would actually be an element such that , and then use a “transfer principle” to show that there is an actual real such that . (This description is not meant to be understandable but to make you curious enough to look it up…)

Later in the 60’s and 70’s, Krivine and Stengle extended this result to show that any unsatisfiable system of polynomial equations can be certified to be unsatisfiable via a *Sum of Squares (SOS) proof* (i.e., by showing that it implies an equation of the form

for some polynomials ). This result is known as *the Positivstallensatz*. The survey of Reznick and monograph of Murray are good sources for much of this material.

In the late 90’s / early 2000’s, there were two separate efforts on getting quantitative / algorithmic versions of this result. On one hand Grigoriev and Vorobjov (1999) asked the question of *how large* the degree of an SOS proof needs to be, and in particular Grigoriev (1999,2001) proved several lower bounds on this degree for some interesting polynomials. On the other hand Parrilo (2000) and Lasserre (2001) independently came up with hierarchies of algorithms for polynomial optimization based on the Positivstellensatz using semidefinite programming. (A less general version of this algorithm was also described by Naum Shor in a 1987 Russian paper, which was cited by Nesterov in 1999.)

It turns that the SOS algorithm generalizes and encapsulates many other convex-programming based algorithmic hierarchies such as those proposed by Lovász and Schrijver and Sherali and Adams, and other more specific algorithmic techniques such as linear programming and spectral techniques. As mentioned above, the SOS algorithm seems to achieve a “goldilocks” balance of being strong enough to capture interesting techniques but weak enough so we can actually prove lower bounds for it. One of the goals of this course (and line of research) is to also understand what algorithmic techniques can *not* be captured by SOS, particularly in the setting (e.g., noisy low-degree polynomial optimization) where it seems most appropriate for.

SOS has applications to: equilibrium analysis of dynamics and control (robotics, flight controls, …), robust and stochastic optimization, statistics and machine learning, continuous games, software verification, filter design, quantum computation and information, automated theorem proving, packing problems, etc…

The SOS algorithm is intensively studied in several fields, but

different communities emphasize different aspect of it. The main

characteristics of the Theoretical Computer Science (TCS) viewpoint, as

opposed to that of other communities are:

- In the TCS world, we typically think of the number of variables as large and tending to infinity (as it corresponds to our input size), and the degree of the SOS algorithm as being relatively small— a constant or logarithmic. In contrast, in the optimization and control world, the number of variables can often be very small (e.g., around ten or so, maybe even smaller) and hence may be large compared to it.(Since both time and space complexity of the general SOS algorithm scale roughly like , even and would take something like a petabyte of memory. This may justify the optimization/control view of keeping small, although if we show that SOS yields a polynomial-time algorithm for a particular problem, then we can hope that we would be able to then optimize further and obtain an algorithm that doesn’t require a full-fledged SOS solver. As we will see in this course, this hope has actually materialized in some settings.)
- Typically in TCS our inputs are discrete and the polynomials are simple, with integer coefficients and constraints such as that restrict attention to the Boolean cube. Thus we are less concerned with issues of numerical accuracy,

boundedness, etc.. - Traditionally people have been concerned with
*exact convergence*of the SOS algorithm— when does it yield an exact solution to the optimization problem. This often precludes from being much smaller than . In contrast as TCS’ers we would often want to understand*approximate convergence*– when does the algorithm yield an “approximate” solution (in some problem-dependent sense). Since the output of the algorithm in this case is not actually in the form

of a solution to the equations, this raises the question of a obtaining*rounding*algorithms, which are procedures to translate the output of the algorithm to an approximate solution.

In theoretical computer science we typically define a computational problem and then try to find the best (e.g., most time efficient, smallest approximation factor, etc..) algorithm for this problem. One can ask what is the point in restricting attention to a particular algorithmic framework such as SOS, as opposed to simply trying to find the best algorithm for the problem at hand. One answer is that we could hope that if a problem is solved via a general framework, then that solution would generalize better to different variants and cases (e.g., considering average-case variants of a worst-case problem, or measuring “goodness” of the solution in different ways).

This is a general phenomenon that occurs time and again many fields, known under many names including the “bias variance tradeoff”, the “stability plasticity dilemma”, “performance robustness tradeoff” and many others. That is, there is an inherent tension between optimally solving a particular question (or optimally adapting to a particular environment) and being robust to changes in the question/environment (e.g., avoiding “overfitting”). For example, consider the following two species that roamed the earth few hundred million years ago during the Mesozoic era. The dinosaurs were highly complex animals that were well adapted to their environment. In contrast cockroaches have extremely simple reflexes, operating only on very general heuristics such as “run if you feel a brush of air”. As one can tell by the scarcity of “dinosaur spray” in stores today, it was the latter species that was more robust to changes in the environment. With that being said, we do hope that the SOS algorithm is at least *approximately optimal* in several interesting settings.

]]>

You are invited to submit your proposal of workshop or tutorial by **August 31st**; see details here.

In short: you just need to propose an exciting theme and arrange the speakers. We will take care of the logistic details like rooms, AV, coffee break, etc.

Note that this is only a half-day event (2:30pm-6pm) since in the morning there will be another not-to-be-missed event: A Celebration of Mathematics and Computer Science: Celebrating Avi Wigderson’s 60th birthday (which actually starts already on Thursday, October 5th). See Boaz’s announcement here.

If you have any questions about the FOCS workshops, feel free to get in touch with the coordinators: Aleksander Madry and Alexandr Andoni.

]]>

**STOC Theory Fest 2017 (Montreal June 19-23)**

Sanjeev Arora, Paul Beame, Avrim Blum, Ryan Williams

SIGACT Chair Michael Mitzenmacher announced at the STOC’16 business meeting that starting in 2017, STOC will turn into a 5-day event, a Theory Fest. This idea was discussed at some length in a special session at FOCS 2014 and the business meeting at STOC 2015. Now the event is being planned by a small group (Sanjeev Arora, SIGACT ex-chair Paul Beame, Avrim Blum, and Ryan Williams; we also get guidance from Michael Mitzenmacher and STOC’17 PC chair Valerie King). We’re setting up committees to oversee various aspects of the event.

Here are the major changes (caveat: subject to tweaking in coming years):

(i) STOC talks go into 3 parallel sessions instead of two. Slight increase in number of accepts to 100-110.

(ii) STOC papers also required to be presented in evening poster sessions (beer/snacks served).

(iii) About 9 hours of plenary sessions, which will include: (a) Three keynote 50-minute talks (usually prominent researchers from theory and nearby fields) (b) Plenary 20-minute talks selected from the STOC program by the STOC PC —best papers, and a few others. (c) Plenary 20-minute talks on notable papers from the broader theory world in the past year (including but not limited to FOCS, ICALP, SODA, CRYPTO, QIP, COMPLEXITY, SoCG, COLT, PODC, SPAA, KDD, SIGMOD/PODS, SIGMETRICS, WWW, ICML/NIPS), selected by a committee from a pool of nominations. (Many nominees may be invited instead to the poster session.)

(iv) 2-hour tutorials (three in parallel).

(v) Some community-building activities, including grad student activities, networking, career advice, funding, recruiting, etc.

(vi) A day of workshops; 3 running in parallel. (Total of 18 workshop-hours.)

Our hope is that workshop day(s) will over time develop into a separate eco-system of regular meetings and co-located conferences (short or long). In many other CS fields the workshop days generate as much energy as the main conference, and showcase innovative, edgy work.

Poster sessions have been largely missing at STOC, but they have advantages: (a) Attendees can quickly get a good idea of all the work presented at the conference (b) Grads and young researchers get more opportunities to present their work and to interact/network, fueled by beer and snacks. (c)Attendees get an easy way to make up for having missed a talk during the day, or to ask followup questions. (d) Posters on work from other theory conferences broadens the intellectual scope of STOC,

We invite other theory conferences to consider co-locating with the Theory Fest. To allow such coordination, in future the location/dates for the Theory Fest will be announced at least 18 months in advance, preferably 2 years. Even for 2017 it is not too late yet.

Finally, we see the Theory Fest as a work in progress. Feedback from attendees will be actively sought and used to refashion the event.

]]>